This was not the plan

Golf Betting Lines

05/10/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The shelf life of a scandal really isn't that long.

That had to be the prevailing theme in Tiger Woods' mind.

Once he got back on the course, and was the Tiger of old, the questions of car accidents, affairs, rehab and divorce would eventually subside. It would be about his pursuit of Jack Nicklaus' 18 majors or just dominating the PGA Tour.

But it certainly hasn't gone like that.

There's no timetable for when this whole thing will blow over, but the golf was supposed to be what made everyone forget about that ugly chapter in his life.

With Sunday's withdrawal from the Players Championship due to a neck injury, the golf part is now in serious jeopardy.

Woods said on Monday, speaking at a media day at Aronimink Golf Club outside Philadelphia, that he will have an MRI.

Until he gets the "picture" (which Woods constantly called it on Monday), Woods doesn't know what will happen. A neck injury is much different than his knee problem.

Everyone remembers him hobbling around for 91 holes at the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. A leg injury is bad for a golfer, but as long as he could stand the pain, he was able to play through it.

A neck injury is completely different. Woods said on Monday that he withdrew because he couldn't turn at all. My limited golfing ability tells me that turning is a fairly important aspect of the golf swing.

It's premature to speculate on what his schedule will look like going forward. Woods said he needed to have the MRI before he could do anything else, but indicated he wanted to play the Memorial, U.S. Open and AT&T National, which is being played at Aronimink and explained why he was in Philly. Sorry, Pat's and Geno's, but it wasn't for the cheese steaks.

Again, while it's too early to speculate, if Woods has to miss significant time, it would be a huge blow. Fair questions were asked of Woods about the injury and how it related to the accident.

"Zero connection," Woods said when asked if the accident caused the neck injury. He did say he got a busted lip and some neck soreness from the accident, but emphatically put the kibosh on it being the root of his problems now.

The question illustrated the bigger point. No matter what happens with Woods' golf, inquiries can ultimately come back to the accident. With a badly missed cut at Quail Hollow and now this, Woods will be answering questions about bad play and how it relates to the accident.

Where Woods has erred a bit, and he did so some on Monday, is taking the approach of how difficult the year has been. Yes, he's had a rough paper route, but it's one he earned. His decisions ruined his image and parts of his life. Injuries happen to professional athletes. While Woods isn't whining about things, he shouldn't talk about how difficult they are. Sympathy is not something most are going to extend toward Woods.

So if Woods has to miss some time, he needs to keep a pretty low profile. Maybe it'll be the best thing. He can take some time, get healthy and practice a ton if he can handle it.

Now, Woods has to answer questions about his scandal, his neck injury and his poor play. His whole post-scandal survival was built around returning to the winner's circle and now it's just another odd turn in his saga.

Woods can treat these three tournaments of varying degrees of disappointment as a mulligan. He can sit out a good chunk of the summer, get well and come back to the type of golf that was supposed to make everyone forget about his past.

Sadly, it's more questions and more speculation.

This was not the plan.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

- Poor Tim Clark. He finally gets that first PGA Tour win, does it at a strong event in impressive fashion, and Woods withdraws.

- Now that Clark has won, the title of best player not to win on tour probably belongs to Martin Kaymer. He doesn't compete much over here in the U.S., but his world ranking makes it clear this is his title.

- Anthony Kim needed surgery and it was wise to opt to have it. His phone call to American Ryder Cup captain Corey Pavin to say, yes I will miss some time, but I badly want to play for your team, was a nice touch. Reminds you of when Jay Haas passed on millions on the Champions Tour to make the 2004 team, or when Kenny Perry geared his whole schedule to making the 2008 team.

- If you don't include Lee Westwood in your U.S. Open pool, you are a fool.

- Movie moment - With "Robin Hood" set to debut this week, it brought on the conversation of worst accents in movie history. Kevin Costner gave up on his midway through the '90s version, so that's near the top of the list. But for me, the No. 1 spot belongs to Nicolas Cage in "Con Air." His southern accent is appalling. "Put down the bunny." Oh my Lord. Just terrible. If you're watching "30 Rock" right now, you'll see the television winner with Julianne Moore trying an over-the-top Boston accent that's just brutal.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.